Drop rate/Lunar Fortune

This article tracks the the drop rate for Lunar Fortunes, split by year. The drop percentages seem to stay roughly the same year-to-year.

Note: In order to make sure the results are valid, the user must use the Lunar Fortune themselves, decide to record the Lunar Fortune's contents before opening it, and must record the date. Otherwise there is a risk of artificially skewing data, see the Wikipedia article on statistical bias for details. Please also update the totals and percentages if you add data. It's more work, but it's the most important part.

Extra note: once someone makes an error, the rest of the totals and percentages will also suffer. Use a simple spreadsheet to check.

Summary / Level 2 data
Looking at the data, the 2007 year seems off on each of the 100, the fireworks (arguable), and the lucky aura. Assuming that they changed rates after the first year and kept it the same for the remaining years and give the different fireworks equal rates, an all-in on the remaining data yields:

Eff-Comb is the 3 effects (aura, blessing, and possession) combined for a single total, just for examination.

This breaks down to a rough estimate of: That's 1.5% short of 100%, so either the 1.5% goes on the cash (unlikely) or is split among the other rates as a fraction.

Level 1 Data
Totals last updated by Yamagawa 04:55, 4 February 2011 (UTC)

Level 2 Data
As of: 03:14, 20 February 2007 (CST)


 * Bottle Rockets: +/- 11.39%
 * 100g: +/- 32.84%
 * Champagne Poppers: +/- 11.63%
 * Lunar Blessing: +/- 10.56%
 * Sparklers: +/- 11.86%
 * Lucky Aura: +/- 10.99%
 * Spiritual Possession: +/- 10.20%
 * Mini Pig: +/- 0.34%

Note: the errors indicated are standard errors (standard deviation divided by the square root of the number of data points).

It seems these percentages are converging to roughly 11.1%, 33.3% and 0.33%