Talk:Miniature Polar Bear

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Confrmed to be 1000ectos in Starting Bid!! ALLmasked
 * It's not a hoax. Zeek Aran 18:29, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Gaile/Frog_Talk/20071226 <- Read the second bottom one. Why would they lie..? [[Image:Jamster Sig.jpg|19px]] ---Jamster--- 18:29, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * True. Its is a CONFIRMED hoax. [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]Entrea Sumatae  [Talk]  18:30, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * FFS, I shove a delete tag on, someone puts a hoax tag on, so I remove my delete tag. Now someone adds the delete back on!!! >__< [[Image:Jamster Sig.jpg|19px]] ---Jamster--- 18:31, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

READ THE THREAD! We have mods and many other people CONFIRMING IT IS REAL! It's even being sold on guru auctions! Zeek Aran 18:32, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * If this is real it makes gaile look a bit stupid. Lord of all tyria 18:34, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Gaile makes Gaile look a bit stupid. She's made mistakes before. The pet doesn't have to be added with her permission. Zeek Aran 18:35, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * We can't delete, it will recreate by a noob. Plus, we've got other hoax items on the wiki. [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]Entrea Sumatae  [Talk]  18:35, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Srsly, the evidence weighs in favour of it being real right now. Lord of all tyria 18:36, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * ONE person "has" it. No one else. That's a hoax if I ever saw one. Besides, putting it up AFTER THE EVENT IS OVER? putting it in, then removing how to get it? come on now... [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]Entrea Sumatae  [Talk]  18:39, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v291/zeek_aran/GW/Polar%20Bear/ I'll remove those pics from my photobucket as soon as Entrea believes me. Zeek Aran 18:41, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm talking to someone who says they have it, trying to get trade confirm/deny RT | Talk  18:44, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Read this. Gaile said its fake. Strange... [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]Entrea Sumatae  [Talk]  18:45, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * The link was posted on the first page of the thread. None of us believed it until we saw it. Zeek Aran 18:46, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Whoops for assuming that was the link to the Gaile Talk page. Zeek Aran 18:46, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * OK, that pic with the panda in it too has be uncertain. Still, I'm leaving the hoax tag until it is confirmed. [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]Entrea Sumatae  [Talk]  18:46, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * [look at the pic at the bottom]--[[Image:Marcopolo47 signature new.jpg]] (Talk) (Contr.) 18:48, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

Gaile: "...know nothing of a planned mini of a polar bear," That doesn't confirm it's fake. Zeek Aran 18:50, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * OFc teh person who has it stopped talking to me after I said I needed noe for guildwiki for licencing reasons. <font color="Blue">RT </B>| <font color="Black">Talk</B>  18:52, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * THEN STOP FAILING AND FUCK OFF TYVM -- Bug [[Image:Brown_stink_bug_adult_copy.png|19px||My Talk]] 19:04, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * I bet this is hoax, otherwise there would be more confirmed pets
 * when did gaile ever say there wasnt one?...all she said was she didnt know about it.24.47.18.113 05:33, 6 January 2008 (UTC)
 * She didn't. Your average GW player has extremely poor reading comprehension skills.  --68.187.144.197 20:13, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

Serious Point
If we look at Bladed Aatxe for example, which also has a mini replication, there's no page devoted to the mini. Should the same be done to the Polar Bear Article? ---Jamster--- 18:59, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * It had to be proven first. Zeek Aran 19:00, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * It couln't be proven in the polar bear article itself..? [[Image:Jamster Sig.jpg|19px]] ---Jamster--- 19:01, 2 January 2008 (UTC)


 * She could just be trying to get you off her back, admittedly. I wouldn't like you stalking me. [[Image:Jamster Sig.jpg|19px]] ---Jamster--- 19:07, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Because it's a hoax, we shouldn't add the data to the Polar Bear page. If it were real, then yes, but it's not. [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  19:23, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * It is...--[[Image:Marcopolo47 signature new.jpg]] (Talk) (Contr.) 19:24, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * You've seen it? I sure haven't seen any proff at all. [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  19:25, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * You've seen plenty of proof. Zeek Aran 19:25, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Not anything ingame that i'm sure isn't faked. What can I say, I'm a skeptic.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  19:26, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

So a whole thread of people saying they saw it ingame isn't good enough for you? Zeek Aran 19:27, 2 January 2008 (UTC)


 * Just some screens aint gonna convince me. The Terro Shield also had some screens, also of Trades. Meh --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 19:27, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

So, they got a bunch of friends to post. Whatever, i'll believe it when I see it. <font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  19:29, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * So everyone who posted there is a friend? Including mods? Wow. That's just sad. I'm not even going to bother with this anymore. Zeek Aran 19:32, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm thinking your a friend if you're getting so upset over this. Btw, instead of deleting, I think that we should keep this here- Somone is bound to find out about it, and search wiki for it. If anyone does, its better for them to see this is a fake. --[[Image:Warwick sig.JPG]] <font face="vivaldi" size="4">Warwick (Talk)/(Contr. ) 19:33, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * I honestly doubt it's fake. There's been too many confirmations that it exists for me to believe it's fake anymore.--[[Image:Marcopolo47 signature new.jpg]] (Talk) (Contr.) 19:35, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm thinking that all of the so called "confirmations" have been the same person creating an account several times. --[[Image:Warwick sig.JPG]] <font face="vivaldi" size="4">Warwick (Talk)/(Contr. ) 19:38, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Can you run a WHOIS by their IP?--[[Image:Marcopolo47 signature new.jpg]] (Talk) (Contr.) 19:38, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

One last thing before I stop F5ing this page. In the thread, a mod, and others, none of which who have the lowest title for postcount, have said they've seen it ingame, along with several screenshots posted. Bye. Zeek Aran 19:40, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * ehh, I've never trusted guru anyway. I'm wanting to see it for my own eyes before I believe it. --[[Image:Warwick sig.JPG]] <font face="vivaldi" size="4">Warwick (Talk)/(Contr. ) 19:41, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * So to get over all the fuss - if the owner of this bear shows it to RT then we're done. Right? More hard proof you can't get. --[[Image:Progr.jpg]] -- talkpage 19:42, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah, or me. Unfortunately, He seems to be ignoring us right now. --[[Image:Warwick sig.JPG]] <font face="vivaldi" size="4">Warwick (Talk)/(Contr. ) 19:44, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Wouldn't show it to me, I gave up. Needed to come off, what do you say we play mafia again? <font color="Blue">RT </B>| <font color="Black">Talk</B>  19:44, 2 January 2008 (UT
 * I'm sorry I missed this whole thing. [[Image:Felix_Omni_Signature.png]] 20:05, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * one of the people whose names are on the screenshot is set to do not disturb. three are offline. one is ignoring anything that talks to him/her. Makes you think its fake, to be honest. --[[Image:Warwick sig.JPG]] <font face="vivaldi" size="4">Warwick (Talk)/(Contr. ) 20:13, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Or that they're just tired of people asking them...--[[Image:Marcopolo47 signature new.jpg]] (Talk) (Contr.) 20:14, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * If they were valid, they'd tell one of us and have us leave them alone <font color="Blue">RT </B>| <font color="Black">Talk</B>  20:15, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Let's go by the old adage "Guilty until proven innocent." It's a very well-executed hoax, though. [[Image:Felix_Omni_Signature.png]] 20:17, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Agree <font color="Blue">RT </B>| <font color="Black">Talk</B>  20:18, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Can we have anon lock on this page <font color="Blue">RT </B>| <font color="Black">Talk</B>  20:18, 2 January 2008 (UTC)


 * It's thesame as the freakin terror shield. Noone who supposedly has one responds, and there are screenshots of it in game and of a trade. TexMod+Photosoup imo --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 20:19, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

(Reset indent)YA <font color="Blue">RT </B>| <font color="Black">Talk</B>  20:20, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Defo. Marco seems to think its real for some reason... --[[Image:Warwick sig.JPG]] <font face="vivaldi" size="4">Warwick (Talk)/(Contr. ) 20:21, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * the best way to prove it is real would be if we knew how to get it and until then its a hoax no matter how many screenshots their are (within reason)--[[Image:Chris1645.JPG]] 20:23, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Everyone has their opinion, I'm entitled to mine.--[[Image:Marcopolo47 signature new.jpg]] (Talk) (Contr.) 20:24, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Wasnt saying your not. --[[Image:Warwick sig.JPG]] <font face="vivaldi" size="4">Warwick (Talk)/(Contr. ) 20:25, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

Gaile Post :D ~It's real. -- Bug 20:47, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Yay. I win.--[[Image:Marcopolo47 signature new.jpg]] (Talk) (Contr.) 20:48, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Well that's stupid. [[Image:Felix_Omni_Signature.png]] 20:48, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Told you so. God damn you people are stubborn. -.- Zeek Aran 20:51, 2 January 2008 (UTC)


 * If it wernt for stubborn people, we all wouldnt exist, probably --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 20:52, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Non-stubborn people are what give Wikipedia a bad name =\ [[Image:Ruricu-sig.png]] ( Talk • Contribs) 20:52, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

Hello Now i wanna see a lil fella apoligizing on guru Dont forget my free blowjob and cookies ^^ Witchblade 20:56, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah, don't get your hopes up. [[Image:Felix_Omni_Signature.png]] 20:57, 2 January 2008 (UTC)


 * And neither get your dick up --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 20:59, 2 January 2008 (UTC)


 * Just personal opinion but i think its a fake. If you examine them closely the polar bear is identical to the panda bear but without the black.  Plus why wont this person who has the Polar Bear not agree to showing it to anyone? and Gaile Gray said she did not know about this.  It seems strange to me.  Once again its just my view on it but it doesnt seem right to me. --X lorien X 21:10, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Gaile already confirmed it. your point is moot.--[[Image:Marcopolo47 signature new.jpg]] (Talk) (Contr.) 21:11, 2 January 2008 (UTC)


 * Really? Give me proof that she did. --X lorien X 21:12, 2 January 2008 (UTC)
 * http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3499082&postcount=205 [[Image:Felix_Omni_Signature.png]] 21:13, 2 January 2008 (UTC)


 * How do we know thats not Gaile Gray saying that? JK :P i Stand corrected at the time it seemed like a fake i guess not. --X lorien X 21:14, 2 January 2008 (UTC)


 * OK, I now accept the fact that it's a real item. If Gaile says it is, you were all right. Sorry for being skeptical, it's in my nature.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  00:29, 3 January 2008 (UTC)

Let's look at the facts shall we? 1. Only Witchblade on GW Guru has ever shown any screen shots of this item, and in fact seems to have started it. All other screen shots on both wikis are copies of Witchblade's. 2. Several people buying, but NO ONE is selling, not even for a stack of ectos. If this existed even in low numbers, there would be some greedy player selling, somewhere. Even contest winners can be seen selling rare minis from time to time, usually right after they get their code. 3. There are claims of people farming for 5-7 hours straight with no results. For a holiday item, that is extremely suspect. 4. It has its own wiki page. No other mini has its own wiki page. New minis just get added to the Miniature page. I, for one, do not believe this hoax, regardless of any screen shots of Gaile posts claiming it was secretly activated by some GW programmer. This just screams BOGUS! &mdash;The preceding unsigned comment was added by 24.20.235.96 (contribs).
 * Having a wiki page doesn't prove or dispprove anything. We have pages for minis that don't have full sized counterparts. &mdash;<font color=#ff44aa>♥ Jedi ♥ Rogue ♥ 09:42, 3 January 2008 (UTC)


 * Fact is, Ursula the White is the model used for this ^^ --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 09:45, 3 January 2008 (UTC)
 * I beleve Gaile Grey's post. so there <font color="Blue">RT </B>| <font color="Black">Talk</B>  09:47, 3 January 2008 (UTC)
 * I must admit, I am one of the people who spent hours farming this Damn bear... 11 hours to be exact, and all i got was 6 stacks of cc shards... my life blows--Schlumpy 11:44, 3 January 2008 (UTC)
 * I saw a mini polar bear today (Sat. Jan 5, 2008) in Kamadan.
 * We know it's real <font color="Blue">RT </B>| <font color="Black">Talk</B>  18:08, 5 January 2008 (UTC)

Intimidation
there is still only 1 confirmed pet right? is it possible that some could be intimidated by this. everyone is saying a hoax, strong feelings have been put here so if saying "I got 1!" could be pressuring since being labeled a liar or a cheater/hacker or whatever isnt very comforting.

No there was a few more..and i have seen a polar bear with a character that was not the person with the confirmed drop.

Items
What happens if you get 5 mini polar bear drops?because it says u get 5 of the following items from wintersday chest.lol,and btw how much are mini poalr bears worth???68.3.17.26 19:04, 3 January 2008 (UTC)
 * If you get 5 polar bear drops, go play the lottery, because thats about a one in a billion chance. [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  00:09, 4 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Being struck by 10 consecutive meteors is even more likely ;). Yes, I meant those real ones, lurking somewhere in the dark and evil sky up there ^^. Kageji Hisato 14:34, 7 February 2008 (UTC)
 * It's not possible to get more than one polar bear from a single chest... (Wintersday Chest) -{[ <font color="Black">PUL ]}- 20:41, 8 February 2008 (UTC)
 * How do you know? By testing it? :P RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.jpg]] 09:19, 9 February 2008 (UTC)
 * The chest will contain one of each from the following list. ... The chest will also contain one random item from the following list. you will always get those 4 items + 1 random drop (witch might be a mini polar bear). and yes, i got thát info by testing :P -{[ <font color="Black">PUL ]}- 10:41, 9 February 2008 (UTC)

drop rate?
farmed the quest over 20 times still no luck, any1 got one yet? (Omfg rank ten guy 19:46, 3 January 2008 (UTC))


 * I believe Witchblade wasnt the only one some other screenshots on guru prove it if they're not fake o.0 --X lorien X 21:26, 3 January 2008 (UTC)


 * According to Galie on that guru thread linked to on the page, the mini was added at the start of wintersday. It took until the VERY LAST DAY of the festival for somebody to post about it on guru and here.  Even if 5 or 6 droped to newbie players that didn't know it was a new item, if Galie is to be believed then the drop rate seems to be astronomically low. - TK Hawkins


 * I think this is one of the issues I take with Anet--that a holiday item would be secretly added with a drop rate so astronomically low that almost no one got one. It's a holiday item--available for a limited time--and entire days of farming by many players produced nothing.  Now we have no chance to ever get one.  IMHO, it should have been easy to get, like the Mini Pig, but maybe a bit more challenging.  I actually wrote to Anet twice to see if it was real or a hoax but I got the standard "post on the forums" messages.  I doubt they consider this a forum and the one on guru was closed before I even read it.  >.<  I think it was extremely cruel of them to do this to us, more so than usual.  They should offer it in the Chest of Wintersday Past so we can farm it forever, or offer another way to redeem themselves.  I think this whole debacle has angered a lot of players, as can be seen from the emotion posted here.  If there was a way to organize a massive grass-roots campaign to get them to offer it again at a reasonable drop rate, that would be awesome!  --Willow R., avid mini collector  ^_^
 * Another QQ post, do you want to make it like Mini Pigs so everyone had 15 of them? Blue.rellik 03:22, 5 January 2008 (UTC)
 * At least making them very rare Chest of Wintersday Past drops would bring more than like, 10 into the game. Of course, then map pieces would be really expensive items... [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  03:30, 5 January 2008 (UTC)

Would be good for us who had all maps :P

Merge
I think this is a special enough mini that it needs its own page, especially since the name doesn't match the model (You don't see Miniature Pig on the Warthog page, after all) <font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  04:04, 5 January 2008 (UTC)


 * The most special thing about it, is the fact it uses a diffrent model. Wich is just a few keystrokes, really. --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 04:11, 5 January 2008 (UTC)


 * It really is different, none of the other minis created so far have had incorrect model names... [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  04:15, 5 January 2008 (UTC)


 * Mini Pig. Pig != Warthog --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 04:16, 5 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Yes, but at least there isn't an animal ingame named "Pig"[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  04:18, 5 January 2008 (UTC)

Err... I think I accidentally stumbled across a precedent for leaving the page, we don't have Mini pig merged with Pig. Sure, the models aren't THAT different here, but they ARE different. <font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  04:20, 5 January 2008 (UTC)


 * Pig isnt an in game NPC/Monster/Selectable, so it doesnt acutally "exist". Diffrent story. Imo, only the Black Moa deserves a diffrent page, because it has a long to-do list and notes and whatnot. --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 04:25, 5 January 2008 (UTC)


 * I really think that the strange model deserves its own page. In any case, I don't really have any more to add, let someone else decide it.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  04:28, 5 January 2008 (UTC)
 * /sigh. My suggestion is to do what we did with Mallyx; leave a note on Polar Bear where to find it and what it looks like, and perhaps a note on Ursula's page as well. --<font face="vivaldi" size="3">Shadowcrest 04:28, 5 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Yes, but at least Miniature Mallyx WAS mallyx. Miniature Polar Bear is NOT a Polar Bear. [[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  04:31, 5 January 2008 (UTC)


 * DOes iT matTeR? --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 04:31, 5 January 2008 (UTC)
 * YeS!!1[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  04:32, 5 January 2008 (UTC)


 * Not rly. I mean, we can leave a simple note on the Molar Bear/Usurreal the White page, and get it over with. I could say a Jade Armor doesn't match the model, because it doesn't match the Jade Brotherhood look. Insane rant ftl, btw --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 04:35, 5 January 2008 (UTC)

BAH! Stop refuting my petty, senseless claims with your fancy "logic"! <font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  04:36, 5 January 2008 (UTC)


 * But, I'm restless! --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG]]-- (s)talkpage 04:38, 5 January 2008 (UTC)
 * So, what're we going to do with this? --<font face="vivaldi" size="3">Shadowcrest 05:05, 5 January 2008 (UTC)
 * We could take a vote--[[Image:Chris1645.JPG]] 13:05, 5 January 2008 (UTC)

I think it should get its own page, because its such a rare mini pet..and because of the ammount of fuss it created. But more to add to the page would probably be helpful..does anyone know yet how many comfirmed drops there were because ive seen at least 3 polar bears..different days but different characters. 10.42 pm, 5 January 2008


 * I say keep it's own page. Sure it's named polar bear, but it doesn't quite look like one, which would require a separate screenshot of the polar bear animal and for the polar bear mini.  Why bother? Keep as it is.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.jpg]] 19:51, 12 January 2008 (UTC)

Acquisition
So, any word on whether it will ever be available again? Or is this the new uber-ultra-rare? How many exist? RoseOfKali 20:32, 12 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Gaile says it will (probably) be back next Wintersday[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea Sumatae  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  22:08, 13 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Grrrr.... >_< I understand the secrecy with Mallyx, how they let it be "discovered" and what not, but this one got discovered on the same day it got taken away! :(  Now to wait a year for another 7-day chance to get a few more into circulation.  Lame...  It should at least be added as some low chance of drop from the Chest of Wintersday's Past or whatever the thing is in the snowman dungeon.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.jpg]] 21:16, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

zaishen chest
mark my words, within a few months someone will find one in a zashen chest -{[ <font color="Black">PUL ]}- 12:58, 25 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Don't give fakers more ideas >.< Although you have a point, tbh. [[Image:Jamster Sig.jpg|19px]] ---Jamster--- 13:00, 25 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Doubt it'll show up in a Zaishen chest. Wintersday's Past is a different story.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.jpg]] 05:46, 26 January 2008 (UTC)
 * Wintersday Past will NOT drop it (unless Gaile lied about the polar bear after she said it wasn't real), but Zaishen drops everything and I mean everything. Probably including items that haven't even been coded into the game.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]]<font color="#4682b4">Entrea  <font color="#4682b4">[Talk]  03:03, 23 May 2008 (UTC)

Winter's Day in July
Everything drops Mini Polar Bears??? --67.32.36.230 19:51, 17 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It was just the quest.. hoping it will be available this week-end.. ;) Corsaire 07:35, 18 July 2008 (UTC)

2008 drop
Okay... ive done the stupid quest over 200 times.... earned dozens of stacks of things already.... seriously. whats the drop rate of this stupid thing? I'm getting really sick of those stupid snowmen lol.
 * Really, really low. No one knows the exact numbers, but low enough practically no one knew it existed last year until the last couple days.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]] Entrea   [Talk]  15:47, 21 December 2008 (UTC)

Wintersday 2008
Okay, it feels like I spent 6 hours doing Strength of snow. Still no mini Jingle bear. Does this $*%$@# thing exist? <font face="brush script mt" size="3" color="DarkGoldenrod">Noggieca 07:15, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Also Should this not be called a Mini Jingle Bear? [[Image:Noggieca_sig.png]]<font face="brush script mt" size="3" color="DarkGoldenrod">Noggieca 07:19, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * 1. It's not a mini jingle bear, its a Mini Polar Bear.
 * 2.Yes it DOES exist, it's just extremly rare to get.
 * 3.and no it should not be called a mini jingle bear because the mini pet was here last year, the jingle bear came second. but even before BOTH OF THEM was Ursula the White, so if it were to be named after anything, it would be her. Not a dumb tameable Polar Bear with a collar :P. DeathByAnArrow 21:02, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * It is not a miniature polar bear, it is, in fact, the same model as Jingle Bear.
 * Yeah, he's right. Very, very rare.
 * He's right on that too.
 * New sections should go one the bottom of a talkpage so people know they exist.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]] Entrea   [Talk]  21:12, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * (In response to Entrea) Yeah, but its not skinned after the jingle bear. so therefore its not a mini jingle bear. the jingle bear is just a GIANT Miniature Polar Bear (because that is it's name, i know the skin is different :P) but that means the mini is just a really small Ursula the White, making the Jingle Bear Ursula the White. the point being, it wasnt skinned after the Jingle Bear DeathByAnArrow 21:48, 21 December 2008 (UTC)

Well, by counting fruitcakes... and assuming it takes 6 mins a run (thats including running back and forth in town) a person can see how many hours hes wasted! im currently at 120 fruitcakes... why wont it drop :(  ...
 * holy crap, 6 mins a run? you my friend, are much better then I at this. i can only complete it 9 mins at my fastest. care to share? :P
 * E/X, Zhed, Suke, Vekk, Hurta, Cynn, Mhenlo, Lina. A variation may include an N/Rt healer hero with Blood Ritual or Power.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 22:11, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Do The Strength of Snow, not the other one. Run past everything until you reach Freezie - most of the Grentches will be attacking Snowmen, but some will attack you, so just dodge the snowballs and use your Snowcone when you need it.  The Grentches for the final battle spawn on a set timer, and you shouldn't have any trouble taking one wave out before the next one spawns.  I can do it in 6-7 minutes not including town time.
 * @Rose, what? This only comes from the Wintersday Chest in the two solo quests, not the normal dungeon quest.  &mdash;Dr Ishmael [[Image:Diablo_the_chicken.gif]] 22:15, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Running past sounds like a very good idea. Curse my narrow-minded thorough nature that makes me kill all the grentches! I shall try that tomorrow.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]] Entrea   [Talk]  05:16, 22 December 2008 (UTC)
 * O_O Well, I'm glad I haven't started farming it yet... :P Let's go get em! RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 05:18, 22 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Gonna post a guide on that quest's talkpage, I've got a few tips that would probably help people. &mdash;Dr Ishmael [[Image:Diablo_the_chicken.gif]] 07:45, 22 December 2008 (UTC)

to make a run go faster, use war or sin. just run past everything. any grenthches not killed during run will hurt pop-ups. attack whatever your snowmen are attacking and tank it up with the ice fort. use long recharge skills right b4 freezie dies the first time. his death gives a morale boost. u should finish the dungeon in slightly under 5 mins, meaning typing /age gives 4. if u dont pick up ccs under 6 mins is easy, at town, use your fruitcake acquired to get that tiny extra boost. each run is 6-7 mins top. 9-10 runs an hour. with 2 chars, run one to the end, and hide by door. switch to other char and run it to the end. first char just finished. repeat. this is assuming u have 2 accounts. 3 accounts, means crazyness and someone else should give advice at this point. well... i think only 2 dropped this year. 1 of them came from a necro on his THIRD run. WTF
 * Oh, come on. No one knows how many have dropped, it's not like there's some magic way to register every one. A lot of people have probably gotten it and not said anything wherever you get your latest polar bear paparazzi news.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]] Entrea   [Talk]  06:50, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * You know, the 2-account thing is a good idea. O_o My husband's acct will now get a use XD. RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 18:59, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Bah... :( You gotta have EotN for it to be available... BS. RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 19:19, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * This drop is confirmed to be affected by your amount of Lucky title points. 145.94.74.23 13:34, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Confirmed where exactly? I'll believe that when I see a source.. 86.7.115.106 14:18, 24 December 2008 (UTC)


 * I really really doubt anet would be stupid enough to make end chests affected by lucky title.
 * Let's just set the record straight: Unless you've got Anet confirmation, there is not nearly enough data on the people who have gotten it to make any kind of conclusions like that. Point us to an official poster or it's not true.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]] Entrea   [Talk]  17:04, 24 December 2008 (UTC)

Someone said they got a polar from a present. there is also a polar following the person. might be a hoax, but maybe its true.

less than 10 runs....
Almost everyone that I've met that got it this year have done less than 10 runs. Sonja Of Phoenix Ii FIRST TRY. WTF
 * So.... It's get it right away or NEVER?!!! >:@  I've done like at least 50 now... *sigh* RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 03:49, 26 December 2008 (UTC)


 * I've been thinking about that. what if u keep creating new characters to get around this stupid thing? but then... maybe those ppl were just insanely lucky to not need to farm........
 * Simple statistics. More people who get lucky and take 10 runs are going to have a polar bear than those who take hundreds or thousands.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]] Entrea   [Talk]  05:46, 26 December 2008 (UTC)
 * I don't like statistics... >_< RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 05:53, 26 December 2008 (UTC)


 * The ones that get it in <10 runs are going to be very ecstatic about it, making them very likely to post on a forum about it. Whereas the ones that take 100+ runs are going to be relieved that they finally got one and pretty exhausted, making them much less likely to post about it.  That's how I'd expect people to think, anyway.  Myself, I'd mention it here just so I can become a statistic.  &mdash;Dr Ishmael [[Image:Diablo_the_chicken.gif]] 06:24, 26 December 2008 (UTC)
 * That's part of it too, I guess. Lucky people are A) more likely to get one than unlucky people and B) more likely to brag about it. Creating a new character won't make you more likely to get a bear, but as long as they're under level 20, igneous Summoning Stone would be FTW for speeding up the quests a teeney bit.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]] Entrea   [Talk]  07:11, 26 December 2008 (UTC)


 * I am really sick of farming for this guy... [[Image:Enchanter's_Conundrum.jpg|19px]] Dean (contribs) 01:51, 27 December 2008 (UTC)


 * ^^What he said... >_< RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 05:49, 27 December 2008 (UTC)

the other guild wars wiki figured out the drop rate at 1/500 should we post?
 * I can't see where he's getting his data. [[Image:Felix_Omni_Signature.png]] 23:00, 27 December 2008 (UTC)
 * You would need a pretty large unbiased data sample to figure out the statistic. I somehow doubt that's possible.  I can imagine that only the super lucky (first dozen runs) and the super unlucky (been farming 24/7 for 2 weeks) are likely to report.  And of those who do report, many will not keep perfect track of the number of trips.  I don't think it's possible to "figure out" a drop rate this low, now or ever, unless Anet discloses it officially.  The closest you'll get is "extremely low."  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 07:06, 28 December 2008 (UTC)

Bored too, guess it's account based... some people that I know got also more than one in a few run... I just piling up wintersday gifts (more than 3 pile -> ~800 gifts / 5 candy cane shards per gifts / ~18 shards per run, just do the math. I give up, gg anet, u completly pissed me :P 217.136.14.86 19:52, 28 December 2008 (UTC)sign

In-game friend pinged me with a "Guess what...?". I knew straight away, he got himself a minipet polar bear. Was not surprised when he said he got it on the fourth run. Sold it for 1000 ectos, Ka-ching. Shambolica 19:46, 30 December 2008 (UTC)

Number
Well, Ive dont a few hundred runs and got zero, this other guy did 26 and has 2 already.... I'm almost thinking anet chooses who gets it.


 * This is really really starting to sound like a load of bullshit to me, I've heard too many stories like the above. RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 00:50, 29 December 2008 (UTC)


 * It could also be play style- maybe the people getting the drops are killing everything, even that one grench on the left near the end (the one where there's a dead end). Or maybe, like a lot of things in the game seem to be, it's biased against obsessive compulsive behaviors.  --GW-Blackdog 13:16, 29 December 2008 (UTC)


 * I've tried running past absolutely everything, I tried killing everything (but not the dead-end one or the 2 together on the left like half-way), I tried wearing a snowman hat with a gingerbread shield and a cc wand... This is just plain annoying.  The drop rate should not be this damn low, and only 2 weeks out of a friggin year!  Those insanely lucky players who get one are instantly rich, and others waste their entire holidays for nothing.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 19:24, 29 December 2008 (UTC)


 * My advice? Do the quest of choice when you feel like doing so for the chance of getting it, but don't feel as if you HAVE to get it. Then it'll be a happy surprise if and when one does pop up rather than a source of frustration. Draxynnic 09:52, 31 December 2008 (UTC)

Estimated Drop Rate
In an ongoing effort to get a ballpark figure as to how fast this is dropping, I am going to throw the following out there: The drop rate is looking like it may be in the 1:2,500 to 1:20,000 range
 * 1) If the drop rate were over 1:2,500 we'd be seeing now multiple confirmable reports of people getting more than one mini from the chest.
 * After 500 opens, a 1:2,500 drop rate offers a 3.2% chance at a double mini, or if we look to only those who got any minis at all in their first 500 runs, it an easy 18% chance at a second mini in the same 500 runs.
 * 1) After a ballparked rate of one open per second since the event started, If the drop rate were much under 1:20,000 we'd not be seeing as many confirmable reports of the minis as we are in fact getting.
 * 1:20,000 assumes not more than 50 minis in the game after 1 million opens.

If you can offer ways to refine these figures some, please do. Here are the ways I can see to refine that figure: Yamagawa 03:17, 29 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Find several someones who had more than one mini drop, and find out how many runs they had to do to get both.
 * Refine the figure for the number of times the chest has been opened.
 * Refine the figure for the number of minis added to the game this year.


 * Problem is, we also need to consider non reported drops as well as people who gave up at over 100,200, runs etc. Also, people who got multiple who did not mention they got multiple either as well as the same mini polar bear counted multiple times.


 * The drop rate is just too low for anyone to ever get a meaningful sample. Especially, if there are other factors in play, which a lot of people are starting to wonder about.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 19:26, 29 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Kali, There is a problem with your statement: You don't need a high drop rate to get a meaningful sample. You don't even need a sample of the drop at all to be able to ballpark the drop rate.  You can make do with the number of minis in game and the number of times the chest was opened.  That said, lets go over the math I've used.
 * Fact) I know far more people who have done 500 runs without a mini than I do who have a mini. For 50% of the people to still not have minis after 500 runs, the implied drop rate is under under 1:721
 * Fact) I've not seen a creditable report of one person that had 2 drop for them. Using some assumptions here: I have a pool of about 10 people who have reported getting minis after various numbers of runs.  I am assuming that each did 500 runs (I know this to not be true, some did more runs, some did less, but work with me a moment). The odds of getting a second mini in 500 runs will be about the same as the odds of getting your first mini in that 500 runs... (well, you have one run less in which to get the mini...but otherwise the odds are the same): This implies that after 500 runs, the drop rate is likely to be under 10%, which implies a drop rate under 1:4746.  Given the sample is known to be skewed, the data consists of fairly large assumptions, I err on the side of favor, and assume the drop rate to be no greater than 1:2500.  Given that I know multiple people have done 1000+ opens of the chest each, and I've seen no credible reports, I consider 1:2500 as the max rate to be a <I>very</I> cautious estimate.
 * As of this last Sunday, there were an estimated 1,000,000 chest opens. Roughly 10 or so mini drops were reported to Guru.  This implies an absolute minimum drop rate of 10:1,000,000, or 1:100,000.  The question is how many minis will owners not provide proof of to wiki.  Heck, most things I do I don't bother mentioning on guru, and as most people who reported getting the mini also stated they were keeping it, I saw little motivation for people to report it (other than braggin rights), so I'm guestimating that as an absolute most 1 in 5 would report it.  This ain't science, this ain't sampling.  Most players I know don't use guru, so in my gut I feel that most players won't report their minis there. If the rate of reporting is 1 in 5, then we get a supply of around 50 minis to go with the million chest opens, or a rate of 1:20,000.
 * Is either number exact? Heck no!  If anything, 1:2,500 as the absolute max possible drop rate is very conservative.  As for the minimum possible drop rate, for most players the difference between 1:1,000 or 1:100,000 won't mean a hill of beans to them.  I admit the data is rough, and my estimate of 1:20,000 can really use better data, but regardless of the assumptions in the data used here, the drop rate is positively over 1:100,000, and I again feel that 1:20,000 would represent a somewhat conservative estimate of the lower bound.
 * If you can refine the number of chest opens, please do so.
 * If you can refine the number of available minis, please do so.
 * If you can provide a meaningful data element (eg, refer me to someone who got 2 minis), please do so.
 * If you can provide other ways to derive the actual drop rate, please do so.
 * If you can say that this is an impossible thing to do, and offer no demonstrable proof at the same time, don't bother. The moment you admit something is impossible is the moment it becomes impossible.  This is not impossible and I submit proof of same.
 * Yamagawa 03:08, 30 December 2008 (UTC)
 * You cannot get two minis from the chest; only the 5th item in the chest is randomized. Cress Arvein [[Image:Cress sig.JPG]] 03:12, 30 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Ok... And after all this, how can you POSSIBLY have a clue as to how many times the chest was opened? Do you have even a remotest idea of how many people are farming it at any given time?  Dude, this is all speculation, and that's all it will ever be.  I'm not saying that your estimates are inaccurate.  The problem is that it's like saying that I have a 99% chance of dying in the next 50 years...  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 03:23, 30 December 2008 (UTC)
 * No, it's like saying your chances of dying in the next year are between 1 and 99%.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]] Entrea   [Talk]  03:31, 30 December 2008 (UTC)


 * okay to person who mentioned the 5th item rule. you aren't reading.
 * secondly, he is using a calculation based on vacation times, general obsessiveness (probably based on neet %) 10-12 runs an hour and calculations based on that to estimate 1000000. Except, I dont think he considered ppl running multiple accounts. I can very easily run 6 accounts doing this without any fails. 9 if i let one or 2 die along the way sometimes.


 * People who bot, should be able to get even more than me.

^^WTF? O_o RoseOfKali 02:43, 31 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Gonna go ahead and say that it is impossible. Even if you don't want to hear it. Fact of the matter is you're dealing with an extremely small chance which means you need a large sample to get anything remotely close. This wouldn't be a problem if you had all the time in the world, but you don't have access to any decent data at all, and no time to make your own. I'm gonna go ahead and call this impossible. Viruzzz 09:51, 31 December 2008 (UTC)

(Reset indent) Hate to tell you but your chances of getting a mini on the first run, and on the 50000th run are the same. So are your chances of getting a mini at each and every one of those runes. It isn't cumulative at all. Tenetke MekkoMy Talk Page 10:23, 31 December 2008 (UTC)


 * Apparently someone never paid attention in math class. read up on statistics. The chance each run is the same, but he wasnt calculating the chance per run..... he was calculating the integration of the average runs based on the bell curve estimated by known data. Anyways.... what if the item  is based like ectos.... not by % chance of getting it but time based.... like every 4 hours 1 drops.... at which point statistics would be less useful since it actually becomes a large guessing game then. Buit if that is true, we would need the data of 3 polar drops. once we get that, we should be able to figure out how many have dropped and when the next one will drop. give or take a minute.  &mdash;The preceding unsigned comment was added by Nibelhim (contribs).
 * Wait, what? Ecto = timed droprate?  Since when?  Everything in GW is a percentage drop.  Anyone who says otherwise is a conspiracy theorist who had an unlucky string of bad farming runs.  &mdash;Dr Ishmael [[Image:Diablo_the_chicken.gif]] 18:17, 31 December 2008 (UTC)


 * That means that the timer would be random, tbh. Prog and I went on an UW trip quite a while ago using the update-trick to get Über drops, and got 5 ectos just clearing the smites. A week back or so we got none, using the same trick. --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG|Ohaider!]] -- (contribs) &emsp;(talk)  19:47, 31 December 2008 (UTC)


 * So, the trick doesn't work as you predicted, and you got lucky the first time... And since I set out to get every mini I can get my hands on, this was the only thing I could do for this event, outside of farming gamer points for my rank 3 trophy, but that can be done during other events.  So yeah, the last 2 weeks sucked. :( If nothing else, I got a nice jump in my consumable items for the 3 titles. Oh and yeah, all things considered, it is impossible to make any useful predictions about the drop rate of this thing. Nice try with that deep scientifictious analysis, but those numbers are still useless, other than saying "Go buy PowerBall if you get one of these."  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 22:16, 31 December 2008 (UTC)

no. im pretty sure ectos and most crafting materials are timer based. for example, during peak hours, the ecto drop rate is much lower than if u farm during a time when there are fewer players. same with other things like ccs.
 * To do a good statistic, you need at least 5 different ppl, where each doing 10 runs on each of at least 5 different time... But those time variables MUST BE ALL THE SAME for each of those ppl. If you do this, you will get a result and you will get a reliable result. [Unregistered Person: Conget]


 * I am tempted to believe you on the how many people are playing concept, but I just ran two different accounts and they finished within seconds of each other. One had 6 shards on the ground, the other had 16. I would be extremely surprised if there was some sort of coding to control the amount dropped per hour.


 * As a Computer Science major, just thinking of the logic behind trying to code something to actually perform that check... As on "has item _x_ already dropped this hour, etc..." bah! That would be a REAL pain in the butt. Then actually dedicating active server power to tracking all of the drops, etc... It's just not feasible or really practical to track drops like that. It's not worth any sort of gain when the same yield of items is controlled just fine via the random chance of dropping and their anti farming code.


 * Speaking of anti-farm code... I almost swear seems to be active in these quests... sometimes. :| The number of CC shards really drops off. Then on the few times where I have taken long breaks, when I come back and run it again I have a run where every group is dropping 3-4 shards and the end yields 20+. I haven't had the self control to force myself to take more breaks to test it out though.




 * In regards to the rate of drop and can we really figure it out... probably not within any real sense of accuracy. What I mean is even a slight difference... as in .01% chance of dropping versus .001% chance... would skew the numbers tremendously when you consider the millions of chests being opened throughout the event.


 * And no, 5 people doing 10 runs at 5 different times is still not a big enough data pool to nail down something as rare as .1-.5% chance. 5 x 10 x 5 is only 250. At a .1% chance you shouldn't even see one drop at all, let alone notice a pattern or a frequency of occurrence (IE crowded vs. non crowded).


 * Nova-Exarch

30 ppl with 30 runs each, doing correction factor of the curve, would be better, but, at least one person would have to get the mini and those 30 ppl should be the only ppl farming it at the time to get a better accuracy which aint gonna happen.


 * The anti-farm code is supposed to reduce item quantity and quality as you do the same areas over and over, which would explain less CC shards over time. It is also said that if many people are farming the same place (read: UW), then overall the drops get worse there too. I have heard that the droprate for ecto used to be much higher, so you got at least one every run (chamber, smites) or something like that; it's fairly common to get zero now. It may all be rumor. [[Image:Entropy Sig.jpg]] (T/C) 05:12, 3 January 2009 (UTC)

You can do all the math in the world you want to, but it still won't change whether you get one or not. Farm it for two weeks straight and get it or not, or just do the quest once and get it or not. It's pointless to try to figure out the droprate really. After all, if the drop rate is 1 in 500 or 1 in 50,000 runs, you still have the possibility of getting 0 mini polar bears whether you actually make 500 or 50,000 runs. Sometimes, even when the odds are in your favor, you still lose.--24.92.116.83 05:40, 4 January 2009 (UTC)


 * That's a rather pessimistic viewpoint. And statistics wouldn't exist if you were completely right.  The point of figuring out the drop rate is to get a clue as to whether you have a relative chance of getting one if you spend three weeks doing nothing but farming this thing.  The problem is, there is no reliable way to figure out this drop rate, other than saying that it's somewhere in the ballpark of impossible, or in number talk, between 1 in 2,500 and 1 in 20,000 (I think that was the "rational" conclusion from before).  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 06:15, 4 January 2009 (UTC)
 * It has nothing to do with pessimism. Statistics are not a hard science even if the math to calculate them is.  For instance, a coin flip is considered to be a 50/50 chance or in other words, out of 2 coin flips, the odds of getting a heads should be at least 1 time.  However, it is entirely possible to flip the coin over and over, and have it land tails everytime.  In fact, there is actually a possibility that the coin will land on the edge and be neither heads nor tails. So even if you knew the droprate was 1 in 50, just doing 50 runs or 50,000 runs doesn't really guarantee anything for you. Contrary to popular belief, the more attempts you make does not improve your odds, it just gives you more chances that you hit the jackpot, but the odds remain the same for each attempt.--24.92.116.83 06:39, 4 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Well, of course, that's the essence of statistics. The chances are independent on each turn, and they refer to your chance of hitting the jackpot each turn, instead of how many turns you have to take to hit it.  But the latter is simply one way of thinking about it, except that it's not guaranteed, only predicted.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 07:00, 4 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Which ultimately proves my point that having someone attempt to calculate the droprate is pointless because it won't change the individual results for each player. This is why the house in Vegas or any casino always wins. They play on most people's beliefs and hopes that 'this time will be their lucky time'. The most that anyone can guarantee when it comes to statistics is that if you don't make the attempt, then your odds are exactly zero.  So keep trying, and good luck to you.--24.92.116.83 07:14, 4 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Casino stats don't really apply hare, as there is no "house" and no user decision making, other than try or don't try. And of course, seeing the pathetic chances you have at getting the bear reduces the number of those tries.  Thus, possibly skewing the statistics themselves, if they are dependent on the amount of farming, like many things in GW are.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 07:21, 4 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Stats are stats. And when speaking of casinos I am of course referring to games of chance and not games of skill like poker, where it is possible to steer the odds towards your favor.  Slot machines for instance, are exactly like your chances of getting a mini polar bear.  Pull the lever and you might win the jackpot, but even a slot machine that pays out 95% of the time does not guarantee that an individual will win 1 out of 100 attempts let alone 95 times out of 100.--24.92.116.83 07:36, 4 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Uh yeah, well... If you win 0/100 on a 95%-win machine, you might as well go buy yourself a coffin and dig your own grave. RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 07:46, 4 January 2009 (UTC)
 * LOL Now who's being the pessimist? The point is, odds make you feel like you can win, but it still comes down to being in the right place, at the right time, doing the right thing to win.  The word for it is 'luck'.  And no ammount of estimating your chances, or calculating the odds or drop rates will change your luck.  Just make the attempt and hope 'this is the one'.  At least the quest doesn't cost you anything (except time) and you are guaranteed that upon completing it you will get 5 drops from the chest, 5 shards and 1000XP for the reward should you take it.--24.92.116.83 08:00, 4 January 2009 (UTC)

Gave up...
Me and my friend have each done 1000+ runs. I've gotten 0 mini polar bears. he has 3. I just feel like giving up.


 * That's just bullshit. Those who get lucky, get instantly rich, and those who don't, well... waste their time.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 19:37, 2 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Needs moar automatic mini if you complete all the quests.[[Image:Entrea Sumatae.png|Entrea Sumatae]] Entrea   [Talk]  20:03, 2 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Lol... I'd be happy with a consolation prize if you complete the dungeon 500 times... >_< RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 21:28, 2 January 2009 (UTC)


 * What annoys me the most, those who get the mini, get a second mini. then a third mini.anet probably thinks its hilarious this way.

I just hit 2,000 runs give or take, I'm done. Not gona do it next year either. <font face="brush script mt" size="3" color="DarkGoldenrod">Noggieca 03:27, 3 January 2009 (UTC)


 * Don't blame you... I'm probably creeping up on 1,000, and still nothing.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 06:15, 3 January 2009 (UTC)


 * would be nice to have some kind of compensation for the unlucky who tried way too hard to get it (ie. exchange 1,000 wintersdaygift for it), just like they did with mini celestial pig (even if I gave mine away before they released this trade :'(


 * Yeah, I think this is a rather bad flop on Anet's part. They should have made it come out of the gifts too, like the Celestial pets.  There are enough 500+ ecto items in this game already.  This pet contributes nothing other than a few insta-rich lucky players, and another toy for those who buy gold and ecto online.  And there we thought Anet was trying to ban that, but they end up encouraging it themselves.  RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 21:09, 3 January 2009 (UTC)

Okay, I did 2,500 (give or take I lost count after 2k of non stop runs, So sleepy) runs this year. (yea I want that bear) and no drop. *SIGH* <font face="brush script mt" size="3" color="DarkGoldenrod">Noggieca 11:22, December 22, 2009 (UTC)

For all you non-believers
.. need I say more? Meraida 11:23, 1 March 2009 (UTC)


 * And that isn't news of more than a year old? lol. --- [[Image:VipermagiSig.JPG|Ohaider!]] -- (contribs) &emsp;(talk)  12:19, 1 March 2009 (UTC)
 * Wow... what's with all the crap stuff? You know how much those minis are worth? --> Suicidal Tendencie [[Image:Suicidal_Tendencie_Sig.jpg]] 13:58, 1 March 2009 (UTC)
 * I think he was trying to fool the seller into thinking that he's inputting stacks of ecto and armbraces while he was looking at the item and taking the screenshot. ;) Note how he didn't submit the offer. But yeah, we all know they exist for a while now. :P RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 19:30, 1 March 2009 (UTC)

Still dropping in 2009 ?
Farmed it during 2008, farming it now and never got one among thousands of run... Anyway would be nice to know if it's still dropping or if my runs are completly a waste.


 * It's horribly rare. GWW documents 3000 chests opened from Strength of Snow (2008) and 0 polar bears dropping. One contributor claimed 1100 runs with 0 minis found. Arguably, the runs are inefficient even if they drop; you can probably farm more gold doing most anything else and buy the mini for its outrageous price.  &mdash; Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 01:50, December 21, 2009 (UTC)
 * No claim, that was me an it was a grueling task last year. I'm up to 1000 as of about a minute ago this year and still no polar.  I have a mountain of patience but even this is beginning to wear thin...the rate is simply far far too low to even be reasonable.  76.20.238.253 16:08, January 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * How long does it take to farm 1500-2000 ectos? RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 02:20, December 21, 2009 (UTC)
 * Is that the price you are seeing? Guru is suggesting, which translates to closer to 1000 ectos.
 * Farming THoS: 3000 chests ÷ 7 chests/hour = 428+ hours without any guarantee of getting the mini. (Based on peeps telling me that, when they get their rhythm, they can cycle through a run of The Strength of Snow in about 8 minutes, Rift Warden→Rift Warden.)
 * So, the question is, can one farm 1000–2000e in less than 428 hours? (Note: If extreme TSoS farmers sell off the non-mini drops for premium prices, they could earn around /run, so it's not a horrible way to make money for those without access to ecto farms.)  &mdash; Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 02:55, December 21, 2009 (UTC)
 * My guess would be yes you can farm that many ectos in 428 hours. If you give up on any form of life outside the computer room. Dont farm this quest for the polar bear, farm it for party/sweet points and cc shards. If you happen to get a miniature, well then you are 1 lucky sob, but dont count on it.
 * @ OP. I didn't see any comfirmed drops (by that I mean screenshots) yet. <font color="Green">Lยкץ๒๏ץ <font color="Blue">talk  10:24, December 21, 2009 (UTC)
 * I will farm the quest in hopes for the bear, but only because there's all the other goodies to get, so I don't feel like it's entirely a waste of time, and I'm still working on my sweet/party/drunkard. Otherwise there would be no point at all with the current drop rate. :/ RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 13:54, December 21, 2009 (UTC)


 * I agree with RoK: farm for the ordinary chest drops and shards. And since it might be unclear, the choices are:
 * Farm during Wintersday for 428 hours for 3000 chests and about a 30% chance of getting a mini (if they are even dropping at a drop rate of 0.035%) or
 * Farm at any time for <<< 428 hours for 1000–2000 ectos for a guaranteed mini (via purchase).
 * Mind you, for a holiday that lasts about 2 weeks, you could manage 336 hours of TSoS. Of course, if you have two accounts and can multi-task the secondary toon's run while the primary is waiting for Magnus to get pelted to death, you might only need 14-hour days of farming to reach 428 hours.  &mdash; Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 18:13, December 21, 2009 (UTC)
 * I did about 25 TSoS runs. no bear ofcourse. Found out Snowball Dominance is wayyyyy more profitable. 1 Run takes a little less then 2 minutes. So in shards/hour it's superior. 500g cash adds up pretty fast, not to mention the 500 Vanguard points. You only get party points though. Oh and btw I have seen the first screenshot of a drop in 2009 on Gwguru, so to answer the original question: Yes they still drop. <font color="Green">Lยкץ๒๏ץ <font color="Blue">talk  18:44, December 21, 2009 (UTC)
 * What is... "Snowball dominance"? -- Nova Exarch &mdash;The preceding unsigned comment was added by 132.56.180.4 (contribs).
 * Snowball Dominance maybe? Anyway, I am not gonna farm this bear thing. Just like said above, I'll do the quest just a few times for fun and if it drops, well, I'll be happy of course, but if not I don't really mind. [[Image:EM Signature.jpg]] ***EAGLEMUT***   T  A  L K 12:37, December 22, 2009 (UTC)
 * Cool, Thanks -- Nova Exarch &mdash;The preceding unsigned comment was added by 132.56.180.4 (contribs).

Some odds of getting mini given some conditions
I have no idea what the drop rate is, and am not making a claim of knowing. I am only playing 'what if' scenarios. First, let's assume the drop rate is constant and totally random (I do not believe this game has a good random number generation system, but that is another story!) AND that each event is independent of another (which means the chance of it dropping this time is not affected by what happened before) -- like tossing a coin. So, how many runs would be getting to be too many runs for given probability of a drop?

if the drop rate is 3% there is only a 0.5% chance you should need to do more than 174 runs (expected number of runs about 33.3) if it is 2% then there is only a 0.5% chance you'd need more than 263 runs (expected number of runs about 50) if it is 1% you should not need more than 528 runs (expected number of runs about 100) at 0.5% you should not need more than 1058 runs (expected number of runs about 200) at 0.25% drop rate this increases to 2117 runs (expected number of runs about 400) at 0.1% this increases to 5296 runs (expected number of runs about 1000) at 0.05% this increases to 10594 runs (expected number of runs about 2000)

Thus, if the drop rate were 1%, then you should not expect to have to wait more than 528 runs to get your bear. However, when the sheer number of people playing the game is taken into account, this number actually grows, since you are giving unusual events a good chance to occur. So, in a group of 100 people, it would not be unusual at all for a few people to need more than 528 runs; in fact, it would be unusual if none of the 100 people needed more (unfortunately). Going by my personal experience (so far), I'd have to GUESS that the drop rate is less than 0.5% -- probably much less. &mdash;The preceding unsigned comment was added by GW-Susan (contribs).

Extremely expensive
I have a question... I always believed Crystalline swords were generally the most expensive items in Guild Wars... But I saw people selling this mini for like 1300 ecto's? Is there possibly anything that could be more expensive? (Srry, not really interesting question but i'm just curious) --Jorre22225 20:07, December 30, 2009 (UTC)
 * Most of those 1 time-only give away mini's like kanaxai and panda are way more expensive <font color="Green">Lยкץ๒๏ץ <font color="Blue">talk  20:41, December 30, 2009 (UTC)
 * Mini Kanaxai, mini Panda, mini Mad King's Guard, Everlasting tonic, upcoming Everlasting Reindeer tonic, mini Ghostly Hero, and so on... RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 21:26, December 30, 2009 (UTC)
 * -50 HP Cesta! Oh, wait... nvm. I've been spending too much time on Common scams/Item scams.  &mdash; Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 21:29, December 30, 2009 (UTC)
 * Is that semi-subtle advertising? O_o RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 22:52, December 30, 2009 (UTC)
 * Naw, just a healthly coincidence. (This would be sub tle advertising, with some super-subtle mixed in.)  &mdash; Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 01:01, December 31, 2009 (UTC)

Pathetic, or Pretty Cool?
I can't really decide which (pathetic or cool)... Before this is done for this year I will have done enough runs to take a new dervish from 1 to 20. Which... is kinda neat, and has the added bonus of her being a "Survivor" too. I have also taken a lvl 3 Paragon on the other account up to lvl 20.

I get so disenchanted with Guild Wars every wintersday. I start out all excited... "Yay! It will happen THIS YEAR!" and it ends up being "Argh only another 36hrs of running the quest... it's NEVER gonna happen!"

Would it be THAT much to ask for some kind of trade in? 250, heck 500 Wintersday gifts turned into some NPC for this @%$@#%*ity #$#@%ing BEAR?!?!? Nova-exarch 15:48, December 31, 2009 (UTC)


 * It's just a bear. It's just a game. --[[Image:Progger.png]] - talk 16:14, December 31, 2009 (UTC)
 * It's still annoying as hell. ¬_¬ RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 16:37, December 31, 2009 (UTC)
 * Saying 'it's just a bear' is like saying 'it's just a title' or 'it's just a [your favorite weapon]' -- in many ways, this is one of the many points to the game (ie, the reason to play). However, the drop rate is too small, and it is very aggravating when some people get more than 2 in a single season.  I would think, instead of a turn in of hundreds of gifts (which is not a bad idea, though), that maybe the gifts themselves should also have some small chance of rendering up said bear.  The same kind of ideas apply to Prof Yakkington mini or the everlasting tonics -- I've tried lots for either, no luck (but no, I refuse to buy them, I want them to drop for me).  GW-Susan 18:22, December 31, 2009 (UTC)


 * There is something infinitely more magical about a cool item dropping, even if you have to farm far longer. And the differential magic for uber-cool items...wow, stuns even the experts. So, of course, everyone gets excited every time they reach the boss chest for Magnus Grentchiamus (not his real name) . The fact is, the odds are just so low that no one should expect to see this mini no matter how many times they run. (I think there's a fair argument to be made that even a bot is unlikely to get the polar.)


 * So, Happy Wintersday and good luck to us all...very, extremely, hyper, awesome-beyond-human-comprehension, exceptional, amazingly, nearly painful-to-imagine, good luck.  &mdash; Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 03:53, January 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * You got them adjectives right. ^_^ RoseOfKali [[Image:RoseOfKaliSIG.png]] 12:14, January 1, 2010 (UTC)

Is anyone gonna try this year?
I can't even manage to make myself log in, lol. :/

Then again, I've mostly drifted away from GW... haven't been in for more than a few min since Halloween. (YAY! Pirate hats!)

Kinda burnt out, kinda wanna wait for GW 2, kinda burnt out on waiting for GW 2... :) Nova-exarch 06:55, 19 December 2011 (UTC)


 * I think I'm just gonna farm it for the CC shards, like I always did. Good money in those things. I doubt I'll ever get one, but hey, it's a possibility :P --[[Image:El Nazgir sig.png|Talkpage]]<font color="Green">El_Nazgir 10:39, 19 December 2011 (UTC)