Talk:Luck titles guide

No reason for article
I don't see a reason for this article. To me, I think we should just migrate any new material found here to the Rings of Fortune, Nine Rings, and/or Titles articles, then delete this one. --- Barek (talk • contribs) - 11:08, 1 July 2006 (CDT)


 * I can see the merits of this article, but I agree that it should probably be merged into either Titles or the individual event articles  &lt;LordBiro&gt;/&lt;Talk&gt; 11:26, 1 July 2006 (CDT)
 * Biro, you said it better than I did: I can see merit in the contents, just not in having it as a unique article. --- Barek (talk • contribs) - 11:27, 1 July 2006 (CDT)
 * It can be removed on July 5th. Might as well keep it comprehensive while the event's still going on. --Arch Cuisinart 23:39, 1 July 2006 (CDT)
 * I don't think it should be merged because it's a pretty big table, I think it would add needless clutter to the titles article. I don't think it should be deleted either, since there's probably going to be a 2007 dragon festival (the lore describes it as an annual event), and there's a decent chance that they'll return then, making the information useful again. It's also possible that they'll add games of chance in other holiday events. -- Gordon Ecker 22:04, 4 July 2006 (CDT)
 * Everything together is more convenient, the page isn't big, and it helps to compare what each option brings/cost without having to flip pages. If anything the Rings of Fortune and Nine Rings articles could be removed (this page replaces both of them advantageously). 83.159.9.78 14:18, 20 October 2006 (CDT)

Math Redo
someone needs to redo the math, since since the center of nine rings actually give 25 as reward for winning while the corners give 55. Alexanderpas Talk 12:22, 1 July 2006 (CDT)


 * These numbers don't match up with mine. For one thing; Nine Rings is running at 19 games per cycle, not 20.  This may be new, but it's what I've observed over the last two days.  I'll post my numbers later this afternoon.  Also, there doesn't seem to be any mention of the fact that if you're going for one of the unlucky titles, then it DOES make a difference which ring you stand in (for Nine Rings). Dareya 13:11, 1 July 2006 (CDT)


 * Okay, I take that back. He does mention playing the corner in Nine Rings (for optimal losses). Dareya 13:38, 1 July 2006 (CDT)


 * What about for achieving both titles? Which ring would you stand in? (I'm currently spending the 9 hours in Rings of Fortune). EDIT: Nevermind. The net-gain in the long-run is the same regardless of which circle. I belive the guide for optimizing time-efficiency and cost requires the corner.--Arch Cuisinart 13:42, 1 July 2006 (CDT)

An anon keeps putting in false information. Do the math for nine rings if you have one friend stand in each circle: So no matter what, having one friend in each cicle will cost the collective group 5 tickets each game! --Thervold 17:07, 5 July 2006 (CDT)
 * corner:One player loses 10 and gains 55, two lose 10 and gain 15, six just lose 10 = 45+10-60=-5
 * side:One player loses 10 and gains 40, three lose 10 and gain 15, five lose 10 = 30+15-50=-5
 * center:One player loses 10 and gains 25, four lose 10 and gain 15, four lose 10 = 15+20-50 =-5

Having done the Math one day whilst bored at work (for nine rings), I worked out that in terms of net gain/loss of tickets, it didn't matter where you stood (assuming you never move rings), as the overall balance was exactly the same. However, the game does not go by ticket wins/losses or games won/lost, it goes by tickets won vs Games lost, so therefore the best place to stand was in the corner for both titles. Also I got 33 days for Max Lucky title, and 60 days for Max Unlucky. If you want to see my workings, search the trash bin at my place of work :P

I don't agree with the statement "This maximizes the time-efficiency and minimizes cost as well." in the Achieving Both Titles section. It does minimize cost, but it is not more time-efficient. I haven't done calculations, so I don't want to change this page, but simply by looking at the tables, one can see that you win tickets and lose games quicker by standing in the 9-ring corner than you do anywhere in the 16-ring game. Gwm 16:04, 20 October 2006 (CDT)


 * You'll lose 9/16 (0.5626) games on average in Rings of Fortune. Standing in the corner in 9 Rings, you'll lose 2/3 (0.6667) games on average. (In the middle, you'll lose 4/9 (0.4444), and in the side you'll lose 5/9 (0.5556).) I have no clue how to write that into the article though. - [[Image:Savio_3_mini.gif]] Savio  19:09, 20 October 2006 (CDT)


 * I think it should be enough to just revise the quoted sentence to read something like "This minimizes the cost of achieving both titles, however it increases the expected time investment since the Rings of Fortune game has a slower rate of compiling tickets won and games lost than the corner of the 9 Ring game." I don't think you need to add all the detail that you mention, since it's in the table.  But at least that one existing sentence should be corrected. Gwm 15:48, 21 October 2006 (CDT)


 * I added a more accurate description of what the table really shows. Which is the amount of time you need to spend on each game in order to reach the same level of titles at the same time. If you want the titles in the least amount of time, play Nine Rings. If you want them cheapest, play Rings of Fortune. If you're going for the top level in both, you will gain the Golden title alot sooner than the Hated title no matter where you play. (But 357 hours earlier, and ~4,580,000 more expensive playing Nine Rings) --Rydier 21:55, 21 October 2006 (CDT)

The center of the Nine Rings games only gives you FIFTEEN Tickets, not 25...should this be corrected?
 * No, it still gives 25 for a direct hit, and 15 (like all other rings) if it's adjacent to the winning ring. &mdash; [[Image:Fin_sig.gif|User:Kyrasantae]] kyrasantae  21:23, 21 October 2006 (CDT)

Ah, thanks for the clarification...Woops.

People are messing with the master title requirements it seems. Currently the cost for the unlucky master title with Rings of Fortune is now 1,250,000 gold and I think it should be 333,333 gold? 09:42, 24 February 2007 (CST)

The Cost in time is just fine...
I don't know where the author(s) went wrong, but I know the provided math is not correct. I started playing yesterday at 12:30 noon, now it's 11:10 AM (so just under 23 hours) and I have not played in the luck games all those 23 hours (did actual playing for 2+ hours). However, I moved from 150,000+ to 220,000+, that is 70,000 in less than 23 hours. So, the math provided is certainly flawed. (I always play Corner in Nine Rings). --Karlos 13:12, 21 October 2006 (CDT)
 * compared to what? that sounds about right... --Lemming64 13:47, 21 October 2006 (CDT)
 * 3,454 tickets/hour * 21 hours = 72,534 tickets. You're actually doing a bit worse than average. - [[Image:Savio_3_mini.gif]] Savio  13:56, 21 October 2006 (CDT)


 * Yeah, ignore me. I have no idea how I reached the conclusion that it was slower in the article. I thikn I was looking at the wrong column or wrong table. --Karlos 14:02, 21 October 2006 (CDT)

Gaining Both Titles
If Nightfalls is going to take titles into account for game play (as shown here: Title), would it make sense to add a note that it might not be advantageous to achieve both titles? I am wondering if lucky/unlucky will have an impact, and if so, might having both titles cancel out one another. If lucky improved your gold drop loot drop rate but unlucky decreased it, having both titles might be disadvantageous. I realize this is pure speculation at this point, but it might warrent mention.
 * I highly doubt they'd implement a negative effect for a title. Especially since: (1) You can't remove it. (2) It takes 3 friggin months of AFK'ing to get it in the first place, leaving an account gimped after that much gold and time spent would just be stupid beyond reason. --Rydier 07:44, 22 October 2006 (CDT)
 * Not to mention that the way it works is by equipped title gives the bonus. If it does have a "negative" (hard to call any effect negative in a game where a -50hp item is precious) effect, then just don't equip it.
 * The way what works by equipping it? Salvage titles don't. The only titles that require equipping are the Lightbringer ones. -76.166.23.65 21:48, 23 February 2007 (CST) (scyfer)
 * Since when does it take "3 friggin months of AFK'ing" to get the title? The page estimate is what, 437 hours?  There are 168 hours per week, so that's less than three weeks of total consecutive time.  That only adds up to more than three months if you do it in small (e.g. overnight) chunks ... and since the Boardwalk is only open if-and-when, that will take a slice of forever.  Besides, you'd be AFK while sleeping anyway so that doesn't even count.  Me, I figure when the Boardwalk is open I get some much-needed time away from the game.  (I discovered I was married.)  More to the point, let's talk in terms of weekends, because so far that's what they've done.  You can conceivably play 24/7 over the course of a weekend event, if you do nothing but gamble, run to the ticket seller during the speeches, and never lose your connection.  So, 437/72=about six weekends of AFK time... not that big a deal. Auntmousie 22:12, 23 February 2007 (CST)
 * They only run the events for 48 hours at a time. 12 pm friday-12pm sunday, and total time doesn't change no matter what time zone you're in, just start and end times. So 437/48 = 9-10 weekends under your assumed conditions.--69.3.204.230 22:37, 24 February 2007 (CST)
 * Actually, events tend to run for two and a half days (from Friday 12:00 PM until Sunday 11:59 PM), which is 60 hours per weekend. I'll leave it to you to calculate how many such weekends the max titles would require by that assumption. Quizer 12:29, 6 March 2007 (CST)

Gaile's Interest
Should it be noted that Gaile Grey has expressed interest in having permanent boardwalk games (stating she would enjoy whack-a-worm)?


 * I do not recall Gaile saying this. Besides which, the Shing Jea games would come back for Dragon Festival (if possible).--Dark Paladin X 10:39, 29 April 2007 (CDT)

Suggestion: Calculator
Would a calculator app be of any value? Eg, "Enter your current and target lucky/unlucky scores," crunch some numbers, throw out a few tables: fastest, cheapest, and the compromising point of interest (furthest point with the cheaper time-money tradeoff, assuming it exists. This idea is still in its inception). Tables contain expected time in each of the games, expected cost in time and money. Perhaps provide a target range for lucky/unlucky scores (at least X, at most Y), for people who want to have specific titles rather than as-high-as-I-can-get ( may require a little stats -- "I can guarantee with 99.9%+ certainty that you will not exceed lucky score X to obtain unlucky score Y" under whatever conditions are reasonable. But I don't want the project to explode in complexity. But, hey, if someone else wants to do it~ )

Implementation: Javascript (hosted local, nonlocal), VB.net, Java..?

I may or may not pick up the project myself--I was feeling abnormally productive for a minute here, but I'm sure that will pass. >_> --Bob III 19:00, 25 February 2007 (CST)


 * Brilliant idea. I like the novelty of it. You could probably program it pretty easily with Java or .NET frameworks, but I don't think the Wiki, in it's current form, could host an app like that. If you made it, I'd recommend posting it on a download site and posting a link to it on places like GWOnline or GWGuru. FlameoutAlchemist 00:13, 26 February 2007 (CST)

Presto! User:RolandOfGilead/Java/Luck Titles Calculator. Run it offline or make it a simple webform if you like. --Roland of Gilead (talk) 21:16, 9 March 2007 (CST)

Lock Picks
So lock picks add to the title now maybe some notes should be made on lock pick vs game chances of getting the titles
 * Since buying tickets advances your Lucky title by a flat rate of 0.882 gold per point, it can be calculated that to get the same economical efficiency out of lock picks, you need a retaining rate of 85.3%, only available for very highly ranked characters. But of course lock picks are there all the time unlike the boardwalk, and you get some (minimal) compensation from the low-level chests needed to reach such a rate.--Tmakinen 10:26, 27 April 2007 (CDT)
 * Coming from a functional standpoint (ie dont care about titles but now it effects gameplay) is it worth going out and getting the lucky title through tickets on a return basis? That's the crux of the table I'm working on below --CKaz 14:00, 27 April 2007 (CDT)
 * How to read this table - amount of lockpick usage attempts to make back luck title costs (nine rings) after making listed title
 * Basically every progression effectively saves you 30g a lockpick (1500x.02) - again pure plat cost effective look
 * {| border="1"

!Lucky !!colspan=2 | using Nine Rings
 * Charmed
 * style="background:#EFE" | 1470 lockpick uses|| style="background:#EFE" | after 44.1
 * Lucky
 * style="background:#EFE" | 1470 lockpick uses || style="background:#EFE" | another 44.1
 * Favored
 * style="background:#EFE" | 4413 lockpick uses || style="background:#EFE" | another 132.4
 * Prosperous
 * style="background:#EFE" | 7353 lockpick uses || style="background:#EFE" | another 220.6
 * Golden
 * style="background:#EFE" | 14706 lockpick uses || style="background:#EFE" | another 441.2
 * Blessed by Fate
 * style="background:#EFE" | 44120 lockpick uses || style="background:#EFE" | another 1323.6
 * }
 * Synopsis? This isn't critical at any level and reward tails off sharply as you go up.  First couple are the only ones that might make sense for the casual IMO, even hardcore if you're not into title collection for the fun or AFK of it --CKaz 14:07, 27 April 2007 (CDT)
 * [Also I didn't feel the need to re-visit time figures or consider lockpick adds to luck, covered elsewhere, wouldn't add much]
 * How do discounted (1.2k) lockpicks figure in? A profit can now be made by buying 1.2k lockpicks and reselling them for 1.4k. The seller profits and those who don't have access to discount merchants profit as well.   [[Image:jkr.jpg]]     18:19, 27 April 2007 (CDT)
 * Well these are terrific however you slice it. 1% better usage saves 15g a pick, saving 300g with the 20% sales discount is just as good as it sounds, it's as good as +20% on saving your picks.  Of course that's just for those with elite access, for those of us masses who don't, even better if you can barter for lockpicks for 1250/1300/1350.  --CKaz 18:50, 28 April 2007 (CDT)
 * style="background:#EFE" | 44120 lockpick uses || style="background:#EFE" | another 1323.6
 * }
 * Synopsis? This isn't critical at any level and reward tails off sharply as you go up.  First couple are the only ones that might make sense for the casual IMO, even hardcore if you're not into title collection for the fun or AFK of it --CKaz 14:07, 27 April 2007 (CDT)
 * [Also I didn't feel the need to re-visit time figures or consider lockpick adds to luck, covered elsewhere, wouldn't add much]
 * How do discounted (1.2k) lockpicks figure in? A profit can now be made by buying 1.2k lockpicks and reselling them for 1.4k. The seller profits and those who don't have access to discount merchants profit as well.   [[Image:jkr.jpg]]     18:19, 27 April 2007 (CDT)
 * Well these are terrific however you slice it. 1% better usage saves 15g a pick, saving 300g with the 20% sales discount is just as good as it sounds, it's as good as +20% on saving your picks.  Of course that's just for those with elite access, for those of us masses who don't, even better if you can barter for lockpicks for 1250/1300/1350.  --CKaz 18:50, 28 April 2007 (CDT)
 * Well these are terrific however you slice it. 1% better usage saves 15g a pick, saving 300g with the 20% sales discount is just as good as it sounds, it's as good as +20% on saving your picks.  Of course that's just for those with elite access, for those of us masses who don't, even better if you can barter for lockpicks for 1250/1300/1350.  --CKaz 18:50, 28 April 2007 (CDT)

further notes
I happened to be one of the individuals 'rolled back' while AFK. What bothers me about this are three-fold - I was active for hours in the lottery area but those gains were removed as well, there has been no communication or annoucement regarding the roll-back or reason, and if it in fact is due to being AFK what kind of crazy title/game makes you be present for a very boring lottery game indefinitely?

There is the option to go after normal mode key gains to gain Luck, basically to the tune of 200 key saves. The % to retain is much higher on the cheapest normal mode chests, but still the effort will cost you about 150p each for the first couple levels and obviously take some time and the loot won't be much help here to offset the costs, something also to weigh vs more expensive chests. At some point I'll look to provide more of this detailed analysis/table unless someone else offers it up first. --CKaz 18:58, 28 April 2007 (CDT)

Don't oversimplify the math
Please don't remove info on how certain values are reached, specifically how the cost per Unlucky point is calculated. Saying that every broken lockpick gives 25 points is true, and the conclusion that the cost per UL point is constant is true as well, but it's an incomplete argument, because neither the chance of breaking a lockpick nor the price per chest is a constant. Only from the complete calculation can we see that the price per Unlucky point is indeed constant because the "(1-R)" terms cancel each other out. Also, "1500 / 25 points" is not a statement which can be shown true or false but just a lonely number. Reverting on that basis. --Roland of Gilead (talk) 05:19, 29 April 2007 (CDT)


 * The fact is, you gain unlock points from lockpicks ONLY WHEN your lockpick break, regardless of the probability. Only broken lockpicks give you unlucky points, and every broken lockpick cost you exactly 1500 (I didn't decide to ignore discounted prices, the version before me did, and every broken lockpick gives you exactly 25 Unlock points.  Now, tell me, how does the probability of lockpick breaking or retaining have to do with the gold cost of unlucky point?  Nothing!  On that basis, I petition to re-revert to my edit.  Don't overcomplicate the math by introducing variables that never needed to be there in the first place. -User:PanSola (talk to the [[Image:follower of Lyssa.png]]) 08:27, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * I agree with PanSola. -Auron [[Image:Elit Druin.jpg|19px||My Talk]] 08:41, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * I agree with PanSola as well.--Stevo101 08:44, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * The problem is, the same argument goes for the Lucky points: Every retained lockpick costs you zero gold, but that doesnt mean that lucky points are free, obviously. You can't just take the price of a retained lockpick (0) and divide by 250, and you can't take the price of a broken lockpick (1500) and divide by 25. --[[Image:Roland_icon.png]]Roland of Gilead (talk) 09:05, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * The question is not "how much gold is needed for getting those specific un/lucky points?", but "how much gold will I lose in the process?". in the process of getting unlucky point, you lose exactly 1500g per 25 points, and in the process of getting lucky points, your lose depends on your 'R', cause your goal of not-breaking picks is tainted by mishappens in which you DO break them. Foo 09:37, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * I'm well aware of how to calculate the price of Un/Lucky points. My point is that this calculation can be presented most simply and most coherent by just sticking to the correct formula, which is Average price per chest divided by Averge Un/lucky points per chest. There is no reason to leave out the (1-R) term in the first place. I thought you, as a mathematician, could symphatize with a little precision and with starting a calculation at step 1 rather than step 2 (where some terms have already cancelled out).
 * I do appreciate the elegance of a variable naturally dropping out of the formula, but in this case, it is equally precise and convincing to take PanSola's approach, and for the sake of the causal reader of this article, I'd rather keep the mathematical beauty out of it this time, and keep it as simple as possible. Foo 11:15, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * I'm still not convinced that leaving out the terms is more clarifying. After all, if the first formula had them, why doesn't the second? Doesn't that disparity imply that the the second formula never depended on R in the first place? There is obvious symmetry between the formulas for Un/Lucky points per chest (a number multiplied by a probability), but the symmetry is seemingly broken for gold per Un/Lucky point. I consider that more confusing than leaving the term in and then let it cancel out in an comprehensible manner. If that helps, I will tex the formulas and take a screenshot, for lack of tex support on guildwiki. Give me half an hour. --[[Image:Roland_icon.png]]Roland of Gilead (talk) 11:27, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * Let me express it differently. Every single lockpick is capable of giving you exactly 25 unlucky points, no more, no less (assuming you keep using it until you can't use it anymore).  It is a simple fact that, with one single lockpick, which costs 1500 g, you can only get exactly 25 points, completely independent of the chances of the lockpick's retention.  Anyone who is capable of reading and understanding the probabilities of the complicated version should also be capable of grasping the above simple fact intuitively. On the other hand, with the number of lucky points, how many you get per lockpick depends on your retention rate.  Thus the math to calculate lucky points get complicated by probabilities.  The cost of unlucky point doesn't need to be complicated.  There's no need to cancel out something (the 1-R term)that we didn't have to introduce initially in the first place. -User:PanSola (talk to the [[Image:follower of Lyssa.png]]) 09:51, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * The average price per chest opening is 1500*(1-R) (unless discounted), and the average Unlucky points per chest are 25*(1-R), and the average price per unlucky point is Average price per chest divided by Averge Un/lucky points per chest. Do you want to dispute these quite simple facts? Introducing the (1-R) term is absolutely necessary, because in the calculation of price per Lucky point, they don't cancel out. Then we use the term again for Unlucky points, and they cancel out. How is that over-complicating things? I'm reluctant to abridge a perfectly correct formula which terminates after the exact same number of steps either way for the sake of "intuition" and hand-waving, which, although they may also give the correct result, don't exactly go well together with Maths. --[[Image:Roland_icon.png]]Roland of Gilead (talk) 10:54, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * I think that the point is that the (1-R) in both parts of the fraction includes the same R, meaning that it is not a "coincidence" that they cancel each other, but in fact, each time this R will cause the expense of those 1500g, it will also cause the gain of those 25 points, and vise versa. in the same way, I could add a variable for the probability that I'll play gw that day. Foo 11:32, 29 April 2007 (CDT)


 * The fact that you are even bothering with the price per chest in the first place is overcomplicating things for the Unlucky title track. It is necessary for the Lucky points, but is an unnecessary overcomplication for Unlucky points.  Just because my flight plans calling for a stopover at LA when I'm flying from Chicago to Hawii, doesn't mean I need to stop over at LA when flying to London.  I am opposed to making the extra stopover just so the number of transfers (and the location of the transfer) will work out the same whether I fly to Hawaii or London.  -User:PanSola (talk to the [[Image:follower of Lyssa.png]]) 01:47, 30 April 2007 (CDT)
 * If there's a fire extinguisher hanging on the wall and a fire breaks out, the normal guy and the mathematician will take it and extinguish the fire. The next time the extinguisher stands on the ground and another fire breaks out. The normal guy takes it and uses it, while the mathematician takes the extinguisher, hangs it on the wall, and then takes it off the wall to use it. That's the way of the mathematician, because it guarantees that the solution to the problem is correct. And as I wrote in reply to Foo above, I think breaking the symmetry between the formulas is more confusing than using the correct terms although not strictly necessary; and I think with the tex screenshot, things should have become easier to read and understand. Don't you agree? --[[Image:Roland_icon.png]]Roland of Gilead (talk) 02:21, 30 April 2007 (CDT)
 * I disagree. Keeping the symmetry just to guarantee the solution to the problem is correct is silly. I prefer wiki users to be treated as normal people, not non-flexible mathematicians.  Besides, if you can prove a lemma to a mathematician showing that direct flight to London from Chicago is going to be as correct as transferring at LA first, a smart mathematician is gonna happily take the directly flight.  You are proposing to give a non-smart mathematical treatment, by insisting on always transferring to LA regardless of where you are going, and on always hanging the fire extinguisher on the wall first no matter if it's on the ground, or handed to you by someone else with the safty pulled and ready to use already.  The tex screen shot doesn't answer "why the heck does price per chest matter for unlucky points?", just like drawing the flightpath from Chicago to LA then to London doesn't answer why stopping we needed to stop at LA at first.  It causes unnecessary confusion by introducing the question "why did we need to do that?", when the answer is "we don't need to do that at all, but that's what we did when going to Hawii, so might as well do it again for the symmetry".  There's a difference between "not strictly necessary", and "strictly unnecessary".  -User:PanSola (talk to the [[Image:follower of Lyssa.png]]) 03:14, 30 April 2007 (CDT)

Mathematical incorrectness here

 * At Treasure hunter rank 7 and only picking Ascalonian chests on Normal mode, on average 10,600 chests have to be opened and 887 have to be spent.
 * At Treasure hunter rank 0 and only picking Hard mode chests, on average 26,300 chests have to be opened and 24,450 have to be spent.

But here's the catch, since Ascalonian chest have an inherent +55% success bonus, you might be better of hunting ascalonian chests if you have no ranks on lucky and treasure hunter titles. --Dark Paladin X 10:41, 29 April 2007 (CDT)
 * How is it incorrect? With "extreme" I meant both ends of the spectrum, i.e., starting at zero lucky points, what is the expected minimum and maximum of gold spent/chests opened? For the minimum, the conditions are Treasure hunter r7 and hunting only Ascalonian chests, the maximum is treasure hunter r0 and hunting only har mode locked chests. Change any of the conditions and you get something between these extrema. --[[Image:Roland_icon.png]]Roland of Gilead (talk) 10:54, 29 April 2007 (CDT)