Talk:Drop rate/Lunar Fortune

Question
Why is it a coffer of whispers? Stevo101 16:56, 16 February 2007 (CST)
 * Because he might not changed it ... --Elder
 * Heh, pretty much. Copied format from there... --Dragonaxe 16:59, 16 February 2007 (CST)

Minature Pig + Lucky Aura
Well, I already got 2 pigs in like 10 opened. I'm gonna keep all the other,for lucky aura, maybe they'll help for better drops in underworld. I hope so -- Elder 17:28, 16 February 2007 (CST)

My Fortunes
33 total opened 900 coins(100 in each fortune) 4 sparklers 7 champane poppers 7 bottle rockets 6 Other -.- 0 Pigs :(8buprofen 17:06, 16 February 2007 (CST)
 * Maybe enter them in the table? Elder 17:20, 16 February 2007 (CST)
 * I opened over 90 of them, and found no pigs. Sorry, I haven't got any more accurate data. —[ Adul ] 18:24, 16 February 2007 (CST)
 * I'm about to rename them to Lunar Misfortunes --zeeZ 11:34, 17 February 2007 (CST)

Percentages
I've added the percentages of the data in the table up till now. We had 123 items, so I thought it might be good enough. It can't do any harm, right? Flashcry 19:55, 16 February 2007 (CST)
 * I was busy writing this and checking my math I didn't notice someone fixed the table. You rock! Did you add any more data? Flashcry 19:57, 16 February 2007 (CST)


 * I fixed the table to make it a proper table. That took a lot of work to rewrite all of your entries into the proper format.  I added no new data.  My own data will go in eventually. --Carmine 19:59, 16 February 2007 (CST)

I think we only need 1 decimal place in the data. It just seems like it's taking up more space, and I can't read it as easily. Flashcry 11:01, 17 February 2007 (CST)


 * I've added my numbers. I corrected the totals and the percentage, but I didn't understand how to make the derivation numbers. Either somebody does this for me or the way how to compute it is entered here, so that I could correct it by myself. BTW I did not get any pig here, but I did get one, when I witnessed the Celestial Pig in Shing Jea Monastery. Michael57 07:35, 18 February 2007 (CST)

Bad Data
Whoever 68.209.230.87 is, he/she didn't add up his/her numbers correctly. I'm fixing it now. I have only 1 question. How did you open that many and not get a pig? Flashcry 00:51, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * People seem to be having worse luck lately. There's talk that the drop rate of pigs has gone down since the event started.  Merengue 00:59, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * If only there was spreadsheet functionality in the wiki :) I am so sick of typing stuff into the calculator... took forever for me to validate and find why the ledger wasn't balancing :P Infinity 02:13, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * If you have MS Excel, you can copy the entire table and use Paste Special | Text to put data into the spreadsheet. Use formulas to calculate totals and percentages.  Then manually update those values in the table.  Separ 10:04, 18 February 2007 (CST)
 * I've opened over 280 now with no pig (7 chars worth, 40-42 lunar fortunes per character). I have two more who can run through Cantha and then if I want one I'll have to purchase it. So, 142 with no pig doesn't sound that bad too me :) I kept hoping that I just misunderstand what to do. Strcpy 02:26, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * lol, I feel sorry for you guys, but I already got 3 pigs in 18 fortunes ... Elder 02:38, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * Ah, sorry about not adding up, I thought it would sum it for me. My fault, I'll do the work by hand in the future.  As for not getting a pig...  That's my luck with this game, sh!t drops 24/7 for me. 68.209.230.87 03:45, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * I didn't add my numbers because I did not track the relative probability of the three "blessings"... but out of 460 fortunes opened, I got 51 bottle rockets, 50 champagne poppers, 42 sparklers, 171x100 gold, and exactly ONE pig. By these numbers I should have seen four to six pigs.  Either something has changed drastically, or people are not following the bias prevention rules.  For reference, I have eleven characters, and did all five Canthan quests for each character, thus generating about 42 prizes per character (this was before I read up on the LA guy), which I then opened all at once for each character.  I counted the drops on the ground and then checked the chat log for the cash.  (The reason I didn't track the blessings was ... I really don't care about 'em.) Auntmousie 04:48, 17 February 2007 (CST)

2 edit conflicts while I did the math
patience is out. Here is my data:

| 77 || 7  || 33  || 7  || 13  || 3  || 6  || 8  || - || -- Oblio (talk) 02:37, 17 February 2007 (CST)

Adding my 2 cents... wonder how much pigs will sell for in a few weeks:

| 181 || 17 || 88 || 12 || 15 || 17 || 12 || 20 || - | -- XP-Cagey 03:53, 17 February 2007 (CST)

Bah my findings and a chart
I just started using Excel to record everything

Total 181 Rocket	19 100g	67 Popper 15 Blessing 25 Sparkler 16 Lucky 19 Poss. 19 Mini-Pig 1 

Removed Elder's numbers (for now)
Elder... I removed your numbers for now as they did not add up, and question marks appeared next to your numbers. Please updated accordingly.

DemonikProphet 11:27, 17 February 2007 (CST)

331 fortunes and still no pig =(
 * Why? I'm not lying ... I had lucky aura on me and then it dropped 2 pigs, the next time I opened some, same ... I'll upload a screenshot. Yes it's true I have a drop rate of 3/20 on pigs so I know ... nvm Elder 12:46, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * I don't think DemonikProphet is expressing doubt about your honesty. He removed your entry because of the math: 19 != 3 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 3. Infinity 17:05, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * I know. I red somewhere their woz a bug at the beginning... Elder 07:10, 18 February 2007 (CST)

Minipig rarity...
Well, after opening 100 tags and getting NO pigs, I decided to drop 30k for one. Why? Well, I could have just sold the tags for 300/ea or each token for 100/ea and it would have come out even, so I figure, I'll just get more tokens by killin people at rollerbeetle and then sell them off. It only takes me about an hour or so to get 200 tokens...

Damn you people that got a pig on their own... DemonikProphet 14:57, 17 February 2007 (CST)

I find that hard to believe when you only get 203 tokens for 29 wins and a round takes a lot more than 2 min

check my updates
i added some new stuff, but u guys should check it, its my first time on a wiki and i did the math for the % and totals. if i did anything wrong, plz tell me Thempest 21:50, 17 february 2007

Pig Drop Rates
It is starting to look fairly obvious to me that for the first few hours of the event, pig drop rates were bugged. The number was MUCH higher than a gold item would normally expect and we know that ANet likes to deter farmers by violating all laws of economics. There was that tiny update a few hours after the event started that were mostly minor changes, I'm certain they dropped the percentages for pigs from around 5% down to <1% now. (I'm well over 300 fortunes now and still no pig. Add this to the fact that many other players who came into the event late are well over 200+ themselves with no pig and the facts seem to support my theory.) 68.209.230.87 18:23, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * Started playing the event today, got a few tokens, swapped them to 18 fortunes, and the 8th fortune held a pig. Does that mean im extremely lucky? Kamer 19:28, 17 February 2007 (CST)
 * We hold 3 accounts in our family and there was just one pig from the fortunes at 12 o'clock local time, which was about the second showing of the celestial pig. We attended the celestial pig show about 4 times and we received 3 additional pigs. That was because every cook served a meal. As that happened quite often I would suppose that there are a lot of golden pigs within the player community. I guess the exchange rate will drop soon because of the high numbers of pigs. I'm still wondering if we will get a rat next year. -- Michael57 17:49, 18 February 2007 (CST)

Illogical to buy Tokens for Pigs
I was doing that math involved with the pig percentages, and I came to a rather disturbing conclusion. Stacks of Lunar Tokens are 25k at least (100g per token). You get 83 Fortunes with that much, which gives you a 33.2% chance to get a pig (using a .4% chance per fortune). This means that if your only using fortunes to get the pig, it will take 250 Fortunes to have close to 100% chance of getting 1 pig. 250 Fortunes is 750 Tokens. With tokens at 25k for stacks of 250, thats 75k for close to 100% chance to get a pig. I have seen people selling/buying pigs for 20k, meaning that people are paying, on average, 55k more to get the pig with fortunes than if they simply bought it from another person. Panda 19:32, 17 February 2007
 * Sorry, but your math is wrong. With 250 Fortunes and a .414% chance to get a pig you still have a chance of 35% of not getting one. ( 0.99586250 = 0.354 -> 35%; see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complementary_event ). To get a 5% chance of not getting a pig you would have to use 722 ( log0.99586(0.05) ) Fortunes. That does not take into account that you get approx. 11% of your money back (34% chance for 100g in a Fortune, which costs 300g) and you can sell (if somebody would buy them) the fireworks. After all, your right. Buying a pig is cheaper.
 * Especially now. I've just seen them selling for about 8-10k Riveted 09:20, 19 February 2007 (CST)
 * More like a Bid/Ask of 3/5. I see plenty of people wanting more, but the edge of the market is lower. -- [[Image:Ranger-icon-small.png|25px]]Oblio (talk) 14:42, 19 February 2007 (CST)
 * But I think our numbers are wrong. I dont belief that ANet set a chance of 0.4% for a pig. I used approx. 220 Fortunes and got three pigs (the first and second one very early at the event). -Khan Reaper Kerensky 20:31, 17 February 2007 (CST)

My rates
67 total: 5 Bottle rockets, 27 +100g's, 9 champagne poppers, 8 Lunar blessing, 6 sparklers, 7 Lucky aura, 5 spiritual Possession, 0 Mini pigs -- &middot;&middot;&middot;&raquo; Life Infusion &middot;&middot;&middot; 19:50, 17 February 2007 (CST)

Maybe it is because the event should be "over" (past noon PST on Monday), but my luck was pretty bad. 420 fotunes used (turned in 1260 tokens), I recieved 157 fireworks (misc), 13.1k gold, a whole lot of bad/good luck, and zero pigs. Queen Schmuck 16:42, 19 February 2007 (CST)
 * BTW, no, I did not buy any tokens/fortunes from players, I earned them all. Queen Schmuck 16:43, 19 February 2007 (CST)
 * A friend of me was unlucky^^ ~1250 cookties: 188 champagne poppers, ? Lunar blessing, 213 sparklers, ? Lucky aura, ? spiritual Possession, 2 Mini pigs. lol^^ -- 87.177.229.158 19:48, 19 February 2007 (CST)

Celestial Rat
I recieved a Celestial Rat from a Lunar Fortune, but do not know how to update. A guildie of mine also received one too.(71.82.137.61 23:16, 8 February 2008 (UTC))

Numbers Update
If you post your numbers here, someone can update the data page for you. I posted my numbers & re-did the calculation totals to reflect them. saikano-- 5:46pm February 9, 2008 (UTC)
 * year of the pig - lucky 18, possession 19, blessings 28, sparklers 40, poppers 38, rockets 32, gold 73, no pigs... should be a total of 248

Leftovers
I had 46 Lunar fortunes leftover from last year. I had been keeping them on the off chance I might need them for some kind of farming build needing the +1 stat bump. I finally opted to open them all. Numbers are posted. I adjusted the final tally to account for my additions and computed the updated percentages, based on the assumption that the table was fully correct when I started. -- Kalendraf

Totals updated/ Numbers reviewed
I've reviewed the numbers on the tables and put a summary section at the top of the page. I think it entirely possible that the drop rate was changed after year one, owing to the relative abundance of the mini and the evident rethink of it's availability made the following year. -- This (previously unsigned edit) belongs to me. Yamagawa 04:44, 5 February 2011 (UTC)

Skewed rates in 2011?
The mini drop rates appear to be a bit skewed this year over past years. Meaningful?

For the sets I recorded in 50s, I opened 50, counted the drops/blessings/etc, and then, if no minis dropped I rezoned before opening more.

Specualtion: Do the blessings/curses affect the chance at a mini drop? Speculation: Was the drop rate changed? Or is it just naturally over 0.5%? Yamagawa 21:10, 7 February 2011 (UTC)
 * GWW is recording ever so slightly higer drop rates, but there probably isn't a difference. It's still about 0,5% chance. Arnout aka The Emperors Angel 21:32, 7 February 2011 (UTC)