- Please note: the following analyses describe the expected values for tickets won and games lost at the various games of chance. By nature of statistical statements, even after hours of playing there is no guarantee that the actual, individual results will be exactly as or even close to what has been calculated here. If you are convinced you have found a flaw in the calculations, please present the flaw as precisely as possible and discuss it in the article's talk page before changing the article.
- Playing the Shing Jea Boardwalk games Nine Rings and Rings of Fortune. These games last for certain special events and will return in the future.
- Opening chests with a lockpick. Retaining the lockpick adds points to the Lucky title; breaking it adds points to the Unlucky title. This is a permanent feature of the game.
- Using a Four-Leaf Clover and having 15% DP removed from the character awards 4 Lucky points. The clovers were part of the Lucky weekend event.
- Participating and winning in the ring game during the finales of the Wintersday 2006 and Wintersday 2007 event awarded Lucky points.
Boardwalk games analysis
- Nine Rings
- The amount of tickets gained is statistically equal in every location, but more games are lost on corners (awarding more Unlucky points and the same amount of Lucky points), so the following analysis will be based on playing on a corner ring.
- Rings of Fortune
- All locations are equally advantageous.
|Nine Rings||Rings of Fortune|
|Cost||10 Tickets||2 Tickets|
|Winner||55 Tickets (Corners)
40 Tickets (Edges)
25 Tickets (Center)
|Runner-up||15 Tickets||3 Tickets|
|Length of Games||8 Seconds||8 Seconds|
|Length of Speech||35 Seconds||35 Seconds|
|Number of Games per cycle||19 Games||20 Games|
|Length of cycle||187 Seconds||195 Seconds|
|Games per hour||365.8||369.2|
|Loss of Tickets per Game||-5/9 Ticket||-1/8 Ticket|
|Loss of Tickets per Hour||-203.2 Tickets/Hour||-46.2 Tickets/Hour|
|Ticket Wins per Game||9.444 Tickets/Game||1.875 Tickets/Game|
|Ticket Wins per Hour||3,454 Tickets/Hr||692.3 Tickets/Hr|
|Games lost per Hour||243.9 (Corner)||230.75|
|Cost of Playing||3048 gold/Hour||692.3 gold/Hr|
|Tickets Per Gold||1.13 Tickets/Gold||1.00 Ticket/Gold|
Achieving one title only
- If one wants to achieve the Unlucky title with the least amount of Gold spent, Rings of Fortune is optimal.
- Otherwise, Nine Rings is better. Notably, it is faster for either title.
|Lucky||Nine Rings||Rings of Fortune|
|Blessed by Fate
|Unlucky||Nine Rings||Rings of Fortune|
|Cursed by Fate
Achieving both titles at the same time
- It is beneficial to play both games in order to reach both titles of the same tier at the same time.
|Tiers||Nine Rings||Rings of Fortune||Total|
|Hapless and Charmed||4,615 games
|38.5||43,588 Tickets won
3,077 games lost
|6.4||6,410 Tickets won
1,923 games lost
|Unlucky and Lucky||9,231 games
|76.9||87,176 Tickets won
6,154 games lost
|12.8||12,820 Tickets won
3,846 games lost
|Unfavored and Favored||23,077 games
|192.3||217,939 Tickets won
15,385 games lost
|32.1||32,051 Tickets won
9,615 games lost
|Tragic and Prosperous||46,154 games
|384.6||435,878 Tickets won
30,769 games lost
|64.1||64,102 Tickets won
19,230 games lost
|Wretched and Golden||92,308 games
|769.2||871,757 Tickets won
61,539 games lost
|128.2||128,203 Tickets won
38,461 games lost
|Cursed by Fate and Blessed by Fate||115,385 games
|961.5||1,089,575 Tickets won
76,939 games lost
|1,410.2||1,410,241 Tickets won
423,092 games lost
A Lockpick has a certain chance of breaking after opening a chest. If a lockpick breaks, it will add [250 * retention rate points] to the Unlucky title; on the other hand, if the lockpick is retained, it will add 250 points to the Lucky title. The numbers are the same in Normal and Hard Mode. (The points are doubled during a lockpick bonus weekend, if you enter the zone after the bonus period has begun.)
The rate at which (Un)Lucky points are gained depends on the number of chests opened per unit time and the chance of retaining lockpicks. The chests-per-unit-time depends on the difficulty of the area, the amount of chests there and the skill of the player/team. It cannot be quantified and will be omitted in this analysis.
The calculations below are based on purchasing lockpicks at merchants for 1,500; you can save money at Discount Merchants (price: 1,200) or from other players (typical price: 1,250 ).
The following formulas are relevant to the lockpick analysis:
- Let R be the chance to retain a lockpick after use. (See Lockpick for details on how to calculate R). (1-R) is then the lockpick's chance of breaking.
- Unlucky points per key =
- Unlucky points per chest =
- Price per key = 1500
- Price per Unlucky point =
(Price per key) / (Unlucky points per key) = 1500/ (250R) = 6 / R
- Lucky points per chest =
- Price per chest =
- Price per Lucky point =
(Price per chest)/(Lucky points per chest) = (1500(1-R))/(250R) = 6 (1-R)/R = 6/R-6
For the purpose of calculating in the Treasure Hunter title with the Lucky titles and when they will change R when they "level", here are some additional formulas:
- Chests opened per key =
1/(1-R)= Treasure Hunter points per key if chest is "high end"
- Unlucky points per key =
- Lucky points per key =
(Lucky points per chest) * (chests opened per key) = 250R / (1-R)
Keys needed for next title = points needed for next title / points per key
These results mean the following:
- The highest rate of Unlucky points per chest is achieved when your rate is 50%.
- Reaching the maximum Unlucky title via lockpicks alone would require spending 12,000, if you only opened chests at a 50% retention rate.
- The price of Lucky and Unlucky points decrease as R increases.
- start and end values:
- For illustration, these are the most extreme prices to reach the maximum Lucky title (2,500,000 points), starting from zero Lucky points. These calculations take into account improving retention rates from increasing Lucky and Treasure hunter title rank:
Comparison to Nine Rings
Question: a level 20 character with rank 0 Treasure Hunter wants to farm Lucky points. Which method is more favorable, playing Nine Rings or farming Ascalonian chests on Normal mode?
- Nine Rings can be played while AFK and requires no user action whatsoever beyond buying tickets beforehand.
- Nine Rings awards 3454 Lucky points per hour. At 65% base retention rate, this equals opening one chest every minutes. This figure already includes breaking lockpicks.
- At 3048 per hour and 3454 points per hour, each Lucky point costs 0.882 at Nine Rings, whereas at R=0.65, each point costs 6*(1-R)/R = 3.2 for chest farming. Chest farming for Lucky points becomes cheaper at R > 0.87, not considering chest drops and discounted lockpicks. Assuming discounted lockpicks and 100 value per drop, break-even occurs at R > 0.83.
- Unlucky points cost 12.5 each for Nine Rings and 60 each for chest farming.
- Chests can be run all the time, while Nine Rings is only available during special events.
- Chest farming has added value in the sense that it also increases the treasure hunter (assuming high end chests) and wisdom titles (from identifying gold chest drops). It also potentially gives useful item drops and equipment modifications that can be sold and the proceeds re-invested into lockpicks.
The best method depends mostly on the chance to retain the lockpick and therefore mostly on the Treasure Hunter and Lucky title track. Chest running is more cost-efficient at >85% retention rates and is available all year long but requires farming with all the tediousness involved, while Nine Rings awards a lot more points per day and can be played without interaction but is only rarely available.
If you intend on leaving your character in a boardwalk game overnight, be sure to first reset your connection to the server by closing the game and signing in again. Otherwise you may be disconnected after 24hrs of continuous play. If you are disconnected then you will have lost some opportunity to farm these titles.